berin wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 2:19 pm
<snip> which is not surprising since less then 1000 people under 60 have died with only Covid on the certificate. <snip>
simonw wrote: What's the source of the statistic that less than 1,000 people under 60 have died with only Covid on the certificate please?
The ONS. Go and look it up.
I did, and I believe you are mistaken. Futhermore, you appear to have massively over-simplified a complex statistical and medical situation.
The ONS data for deaths where COVID-19 are listed on a death certificate for patients aged 1-64 (there is no "under 60" group) between January and December 2020 show a total of 1,549. For 65 and over the number of deaths where COVID-19 is listed on a death certificate for patients aged 65 and over is 7,851.
But, as with all statistics, that doesn't paint the whole picture of course.
Sources:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transpar ... minfluenza links to a dataset published at
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ndandwales.
The guidance notes state:
Row 28 of Table 1a of this dataset provides the number of deaths occurring in England and Wales in 2020 where COVID-19 was listed as the underlying cause, but had no other pre-existing conditions recorded on the death certificate. This data are split by broad age groups between 1-64 and 65+. This publication will be updated quarterly. Unfortunately, we do not hold analysis showing any further age breakdown for deaths from COVID-19 alone.
Deaths with a positive test are coded using the ICD10 code U0.71 and those with suspected COVID-19 but no test has been conducted are coded with ICD10 U0.72.
You may also be interested to note the following, which appears further down the page of my first quoted link:
Here are the summed totals for COVID-19 up to week ending 19 March 2021:
Deaths involving COVID-19 (underlying or contributory cause): 135,560
Deaths due to COVID-19 (underlying cause): 121,665
This provides a bit more of the jigsaw puzzle, but still not the whole picture of course. Probably the most notable parts missing from the puzzle are the socio-economic and ehtnicitiy factors, but I doubt data are collected about these to a sufficiently detailed level to provide meaningful statistical insight.
I assume that since you are familiar with the ONS data in respect of deaths due, or related to, COVID-19, you will be aware of the difficulty in ascertaining COD, viz:
ONS mortality data comes from the information collected at death registration. Each condition mentioned on the death certificate is coded using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10). From all the conditions mentioned, an underlying cause of death is selected using ICD-10 coding rules. The underlying cause of death is defined by WHO as:
a) the disease or injury that initiated the train of events directly leading to death, or
b) the circumstances of the accident or violence that produced the fatal injury
When cause of death information is gathered from the death certificate, it does not necessarily map directly from line to cause code. The coding team follow a specific set of rules when coding the underlying cause of death and the codes allocated to each condition depends on where they occur on the certificate. For example, underlying cause is not always taken from one specific line of the death certificate, the coding team read all of the causes listed on the certificate and choose the cause that led to the sequence of events that led to death. Further information about ONS coding rules is available in ICD-10 Volume 2 Instruction manual 2010.
Finally, if you wish to learn more, you may be interested to read about the complexities of counting COVID-19 deaths and the different methods used in a blog article by Professor John Newton of Public Health England, which can be found here:
https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk ... 19-deaths/