Travel this year

The black art of moving from A to B on foreign soil
Dark Knight
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Re: Travel this year

Post by Dark Knight »

Starting to see why there is a shortage of face masks, Trump had bought 43 million, he is going to order another 35 million.
I believe that those face masks that you use when sanding ( which most of us already have) perfom better than the surgical face masks.
Not really any signs of food shortages in the shops yet.
Is Boris wearing lead boots?
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zimtim
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Re: Travel this year

Post by zimtim »

My understanding of the surgical masks is that they are only single use, and that they are used to prevent the wearer spreading germs when they breath out. Hence they are used in surgery to stop the surgical team spreading germs etc into the open wound.

They actually offer no protection or at least very little to the wearer from inhaling any virus, germs
daveuprite
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Re: Travel this year

Post by daveuprite »

Here you go Stevey. Article from yesterday's Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... us-spreads
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chunky butt
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Re: Travel this year

Post by chunky butt »

Yep there getting it rough, it's just not worth the risk as we could transport it back to France, and then what !!!!!
Dark Knight
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Re: Travel this year

Post by Dark Knight »

Well looks like the Scottish motorcycle show is going ahead despite the obvious risks.
There is also a match on at Murrayfield which has a 60,000 capacity and will be packed.
This does not seem like a containment policy.
Have decided not to go to the bike show, well as the man said death is inevitable, but would not like to catch the virus and pass it onto my wife whose health is a bit fragile.
Within a couple of weeks the number of cases will have increased many times.
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Dark Knight
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Re: Travel this year

Post by Dark Knight »

The situation seems to heading for a tipping point, where scenario 1 is beginning to look more likely, thanks to the goverment dithering or maybe they are too busy making there own preparations.
Starting to see some shortages in the shops.
Good luck to all.


So over most of February, the log graph is a remarkably straight line showing 10 fold increase over any 3 weeks.. Since around 20 February it has increased to a factor of 10 over 12 days.
So allowing maybe 10-fold increase in cases every 2 weeks, if this continues, most of global population could have been exposed to the virus in around 12 weeks::infected then 1 miillion times more numerous than now, nobody left to infect!. I presume this is where the 12 week figure recently quoted by health secretary Matt Hancock comes from.
Expected mortality at minimum estimate of 1% for near 8 billion population gives around 80 million deaths, near double the 1918 flu pandemic. Note typical recent mortality at nearer 2% is much greater than current general flu of around 0.1%, and is also greatly dependant on age But data is still at very preliminary stage.
Notable age dependence of fatality rate, **LINK** , brief summary extract (ages relevant to various generations of my own family):
• 0-9 years: no fatalities yet recorded
• 30-39: 0.2% fatality
• 60-69: 3.6%
• 80+: 14.8%
Hope it does not continue like this, but I would have to have a good reason to believe so. Can the spread be contained? One hears platitudes on the lines of 'it will all die down in the spring, when we open our windows and get out more'.
So:
• Scenario 1: the infection cannot be contained, leading to global infection and the global death toll of twice that of the 1918 influenza pandemic, when up to 50 million died.

• Scenario 2: the infection is contained through various measures including self isolation, sanitising measures (personal and public), availability of immunisation vaccine, etc. Hoping that this is is how it goes.
Anyway, I am preparing for the worst, but hoping for the best. Good luck to all!
dazcoates
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Re: Travel this year

Post by dazcoates »

We are waiting to see what's happening mid may before we decide to go to Austria or not. No point deciding now. Wait and see what happens. Dont panic ffs .
Now , wheres my mask and gloves.
AustinW
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Re: Travel this year

Post by AustinW »

Our plans for a 6-8 week trip to Eastern Europe, Georgia and Turkey on hold for two reasons:

1. Riding into a "hot zone" and catching the flu while away. Ill with flu of any sort for 2-3 weeks on a 6 to 8 week trip is not going to be fun, possibly longer if we get it consecutively rather than concurrently. The total trip would be curtailed or at least would have to change significantly as one or the other of us would be pretty much incapacitated for a week or more (that is if this affects you like proper flu does). Highly likely trying to find accommodation with obvious symptoms would be nigh on impossible. It would be a trip to remember for all the wrong reasons.

2. Borders could be closed or areas put into lock down as infections rise and countries/regions/towns try to stop or slow the spread of the virus. It wouldn't matter that you may have already had the virus any lockdown has to be 100% to be effective. Trip plans and destinations could become impossible to follow with the need to retrace steps, eg what happens if the border between Georgia and Turkey is closed? Only way out without the right visas) is a boat to Ukraine, Moldova or Bulgaria - if indeed those countries are open to travellers from Georgia. While it might be fun for a while to be locked into somewhere like Ukraine or Georgia it could quickly wear thin and it could be for quite a long time. Again a trip to remember for all the wrong reasons.

(worst case - you get locked in somewhere and then get a dose of flu too).

While the home countries beckon the risks above are equally real at home, just the distances/time back home a bit less and the good old NHS on hand to mop your fevered brow.

On the other hand this could prove to be a mountain made out of a molehill with the pandemic never really taking off and everything fizzling out in a month or so. If so, we will be off on our way east in early May. Or we may just go anyway and sod the consequences.
garyboy
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Re: Travel this year

Post by garyboy »

0-9 years: no fatalities yet recorded
• 30-39: 0.2% fatality
• 60-69: 3.6%
???????????????
• 80+: 14.8%

quoted from recent post … thank Gawd I am not in the age statistics :lol: 8-)
dazcoates
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Re: Travel this year

Post by dazcoates »

Probably means your safe or on the other hand your fu@$#d
:lol:
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